Awesome vacation, bleak reality

I returned from holidays over a week ago. I had fantastic time in Galapagos. It’s spectacular landscapes were relaxing. Swimming and snorkelling with playful sea lions and “cool” turtles was amazing therapy. Made me forget about crisis and “other” frustrating things. The fellow travellers on "Eclipse" - the ship I was a on – were adventure loving and fun. The guides highly knowledgeable, enthusiastic and fun loving.
I made hundreds of photos of sea lions, lizards, boobies, finches, pelicans, albatrosses -which I expect to be sorting for months. In short my Galapagos memories will be an uplifting tonic when spirits are down for years to come.

Some pics from Galapagos are on http://picasaweb.google.nl/lh/photo/ZiaBwkoLONPlkGBXolsBNQ?feat=directlink
When I left UA for three weeks vacation I expected things in the country would improve. I could not be more wrong.
Shortly after my return I heard someone gave Ukraine a nickname "Zimbabwe of Europe". While this might be an exaggeration (no cholera - yet) it's difficult (within Europe) to match speed of hrivnya devaluation (hrivnya moved from 5/USD to 10/USD within last month). The government remains dysfunctional. Tymoshenko accuses Yushenko of flaring-up devaluation. Yushenko states Tymoshenko is incapable of controlling the economic developments. While the President and PM argue people are losing their jobs and savings. The government proposes regulations smacking of administrative economy. Seems like moving towards the drak age of late 80ties and early 90ties. For all practical purposes country is in default or rapidly heading towards it. Ukraine also has not paid EUR 1.8 bn gas bill outstanding since September 2008. Since 2005 Ukraine-Russia "gas spats" around New Year are "regular event". The issue is UA-RU cannot agree an a gas price as of Jan 1st 2009. These gas price negotiation may win award for intransparency. On other side lack of clarity into gas price fixing process might be highly beneficial to off shore accounts of some individuals. In the meantime courtesy of politicians - common people will most likely have their flats decorated with icicles. While people will have fresh albeit freezing air in their apartments, Kiev mayor will be warm in his new Rolls Royce he purchased for a USD 1 mio last month (Rolls replaced "old" Maybach). In any European country there would be an outrage if a mayor will drive Rolls.
Amazingly some of my co-workers try to convince me there is actually no crisis. If Zimbabwean crisis standards are applied – they might be right. The worst is the dysfunctional government (naturally) lacks any "plans ahead" to face or fix problems.

During my vacation Catharine, Kees and their 11 year old dog Vibe took care of Igor. Under their excellent care Igor became a grown up boy (started to lift a leg)!!! Many, many barking thanks to Catherina for taking excellent care of Igor!!!

For Christmas and New Year I'll stay in Kiev. Pauline and Wyger will come to visit over Christmas. Since last week it snows here so "white Christmas" is guaranteed.

To all of you I wish you merry Christmas and happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous New Year.

Autumn to remember

Last four weeks have been tough.

In September it looked as the financial crises in the West will only brush off Ukraine. Instead of brush off Ukraine found itself in a bigger crises than one in 1998 or in 2004. And I fear we are only at the beginning. Unexpected drop of steel prices put Eastern Ukraine almost at halt. Steel is major export and as steel stock remains high steel companies are reducing production by more than 50% and aggressively reducing workforce. Steel needs a lot of energy - one of sources being coal. As steel production is significantly reduced - coal mines are closed. There are entire villages and small cities in Eastern Ukraine depending on coal mining or steel. Closure of a mine or a steel factory has a dramatic effect on a village or a city. Construction is also halted. There is actually no industry which is not affected.

The government remains dysfunctional. I am truly amazed it took the government three weeks to sign the IMF package. I am not fan of IMF. Each country supported by IMF found itself in even larger mess few years after in received IMF package. But the fact is Ukraine desperately need external funding these days. However for about three weeks it looked like personal turfing between the President and the PM was more important than the country's survival. It looked like personal scoring had a priority over receiving USD 16,5 bn package. There were days it looked very likely that the President will refuse to sign the package as one of IMF conditions was to postpone the early election which was triggered by the President. The President finally signed it last week.
To recap - we had a banking crises first week of October. The second week in October we received a very strange Central Bank of Ukraine instruction #319 on Oct 10th. The instruction #319 requested banks not to lend i.e a bank was forbidden to provide a new financing. Although this instruction was short lived and not registered at Ministry of Justice (thus legaly not enforacble) - it caused a lot of havoc. The Central Bank of Ukraine revoked the instruction on Oct 14th. Than hrivnya (local currency) started to rapidly devalue. The state spend billions to support it but still the currency devalued 30%. The last instruction from Nov 4th basically halts forex market. Depressing events.

In the office my collgaues are mostly very young people who in 1998 were in collage. They have no idea how to read signs of crises and even less how to adjust working habits. Clients display similar attitude. Most of the companies here know only good times of aboundant liquidity and most of them have owners who still live in a bubble. One client told me that company which these days struggles heavily with liquidity remains basically healthy as in June he had an offer to sell the company for USD 500 mio. Well - since June so many things happened. I am sure he will regret not selling the company in June. But for him in June USD 500 mio was not enough.

Unsurprisngly all these events and situations create an intense atmosphere at work. Stress I can manage. It comes and goes. But continuous intensity of problems wears me down. Two weeks ago I thought it cannot get worse. Last week each day was worse than a day before. I see two clients a day. We do not share good news in these meetings.

But there must be some correlation between dire conditions Ukraine economy finds itself and wonderful autumn weather we had so far. Until last week it was sunny and mellow. Than it cooled down significantly but sun is shining brightly and skies are crystal blue. I spent weekend walking Igor and taking photos of autumn leaves.
The only bad think today was that we were chased by 12 stray dogs. We survived but it was not pleasant especially as there were no people around.
Pics from this weekend are at http://picasaweb.google.nl/gordie26/AutumnLeaves#

Change happened

Four years ago I hurt (not to use a stronger word) some American acquaintances with a remark that Americans need a lesson on what voting means and how to vote.

Tonight US gave the globe a huge lesson on democracy. For me - with Obama elected - next to many other things which do not need to be repeated - decency became classy again.

Few weeks ago I still doubted Obama will be elected. I hoped and prayed.

Today I am excited. Optimistic. Convinced the world is a better place. And I hardly wait to visit US again.

I'll wear my Obama "Changing History" T-shirt today.

- 777.7

It's hard to come with a decent commentary on what happened yesterday. Instead of moving towards socialisam we moved from bad to worse. Globally we will all be worse now. That's kind of socialism too. An interesting analysis of the vote is on http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/the_failure_of_the_financial.html?hpid=topnews
Disbelief and fear is what I felt watching voting on BBC World - the only decent channel I have on my cable here (no CNN, CNBC). I was sure that the bill would be passed and rationality prevail. Next to TV I watched cnn.live.com. on my laptop and thought it's a bad joke when after not passing the bill the Congress started to voting about commemorative coins. Maybe they can commemorate 777.7 drop. Easy to mint.
At the moment I watch Asia going down. At least banks in Asia are no going bankrupt -today. Markets pounding is expected in Europe. Have no idea what awaits me at work this morning - but at least I still have a job.
I am appalled by Congress reps' absence of logic and inability to grasp facts. Or so many have voted "No" because there were no earmarks? If that's how "true democracy" works I am in a very democratic country now. By the way Yushenko is in Washington.

Igor in Kiev

Today is exactly a week since Igor arrived to Kiev. However events in financial markets are felt in Ukraine too and have not gave me much time to write.
I first want to thank Sandra, Maria, Zippo and Isela to going with Igor and me to the airport. I was very nervous and having seasoned "dog travellers" with me at the airport helped a lot.
On the airport everyone was helpful. Waiting in the line for security check lovely Ukrainian ladies gave Igor a lot of attention. He basked in it. In the plane he was quite. No whining. No one knew I have a doggie in my bag. I was so proud of him!
At the customes of the Kiev airport they just asked if Igor has a passport and vaccinations. They have not looked properly at Igor's papers. So much work went into getting them I was disappointed there is almost no interest in them. I had truly a thick file for Igor - all vaccinations, vet's statement in Ukrainian, correspondence (or better lack of it) with Ukrainian vet service and customs - and no one looked at any of these!!! But everyone on the airport was friendly and helpful! I felt a mixture of relief that Igor arrived to Kiev so smoothly and disappointment that no one showed interest in his papers. Kind of feeling when you get highest grade on exam not because you spent days preparing but because the question was an easy one.

At home - after I opened my suitcase Igor immediately jumped into it! Perhaps his way of showing he misses his big family in Nieuw A'dam. We had a bit of a noisy night but soon he got used to sleeping in his big crate.
He adjusted to his new home fast. It helps that Julia - my housekeeper - keeps him company during the day.
On his walks he is afraid of people and cars. Today he started to bark at a small friendly Pekinese who wanted to play with him. He likes driving but when I stop and people start to cross a road he barks at them in the car. We have to work on Igor's social skills.

About financial meltdown - I hope ING will not take over Fortis. For that news I have to wait until tomorrow.

Overbearing neighbour

As many others I consider a stock market index of a country a reliable mood indicator. It gives some indication of what is likely to happen next. Money always moves first.
On Friday, Sep 5th stock trading in Kiev was suspended. PFTS - the local stock market index -dropped 7% in one day. For the last quarter PFTS dropped 29.1% and such fall earned PFTS a silver medal for the 2nd worst performing stock index in the world. (Gold medal goes to China Mainland Index). CDS on Ukrainian government bonds moved over 501 mark.
Yesterday's index drop is not triggered by Cheny's visit and talk about Ukraine's need to move closer to EU and get NATO membership.
It has to do with overbearing neighbouring Mishka bear and unbearably mercurial local politics. For excellent analysis about both check http://www.stratfor.com/.
Like many Ukrainians I do not fear peace-keeping "Black Eagles" on the East boarder. Mishka has a more effective way down his paws. On Aug 29th Russian Economic Ministry committed to abolish conditions for free trading with Ukraine. Under 1993 Russia-Ukraine free trade agreement all goods produced in Ukraine except sugar and alcohol enjoy duty free export to Russia. So Mishka plans (the government has a week to decide) to close Russian market for Ukrainian goods. The bear knows well Ukraine's weakest spots. In spite '93 agreement Mishka triggered few "economic wars" already. In Jan 2006 Russia declared "chicken and cheese war". Mishka found that Ukrainian milk and meat products pose the threat of contagious diseases in Russia. Since Jan 2007 when Mishka mentions "gas" - Ukraine freezes. Not only literally. Ukraine economic fate is tied to oil and gas as Ukraine major export (after grain and sunflowers) is steel. To produce steel this country needs a lot of gas. Until now Mishka and Vladimir supplied gas (with few telling interruptions) at below market prices. But that's due to change. The new gas contract is being negotiated. The guess is not will the price be higher - but will it be "un/bearably" higher.
In Ukraine (as in many other places) money rules. Ru$$ia i$ flu$hed with $$$$$$$. And annoyed with what it calls "the encirclement strategy" employed by the US/West.
Since Peter the Great the Russian doctrine is based to ensure access to the Baltic in the North and the Black Sea in the South. Peter won access to the Baltic. Cathrine's soldier Potemkin ensured access to the Black Sea. Russia will not allow even contemplating a loss of access to the Black Sea and Sevastopol naval base - which population is 72% Russian.

For those not quite familiar with Crimea - it was donated to Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic by Khrushchov in 1954. Since Ukraine independence suzerainty of Crimea is subject of heated debate.
Russians will not repeat embarrassment of 2004. If - following collapse of coalition government this week - early election take place, my guess is that a party backed by Mishka is most likely to win.

September will countinue to be exciting month. Not only beacuse at the end of it FIFA has to finally decide if Ukraine is on its way to be ready to co-host the football championship in 2012.

In the meantime Mishka taps his paws...

Credit: the amazing photo of the bear is downloaded from www.firstpeople.us

Independence Parade

So after a week of parade rehearsals finally we had yesterday a real thing. Following tank unit rehearsal last Tuesday on Thursday some other military machinery made on Kiev streets for rehearsals with some military orchestras. I was more interested in making photos of musical instruments. See photos at http://picasaweb.google.nl/gordie26/ParadeRehearsal
Unfortunately my mum could not watch the parade as she had to leave on Saturday. My dad does not feel well and she decided to leave Kiev earlier. I just said goodbye to my mum on the airport, and few minutes later I greeted Kathy - my good friend from Seoul. Last time I saw Kathy was March 07 in Seoul. She will spend a week in Ukraine.
So yesterday Kathy and I walked towards Khreshchatik and faced huge crowd. We could not see much from a parade but people watching was great. Leaving the parade crowds and going home I saw a lovely doggie. I looked at the doggie and tried to guess the owners. I approach a couple with a kid and in Russian asked if the lovely dog is theirs. The lady answered in Russian but than asked a husband in English to help her with some difficult word. They are Americans living two years here and gave me recommendations for two vets. So I'll check these vets out.
Following the parade I decided to take Kathy to Chernihiv - a very old city about 140km from Kiev. On the road we saw military trucks from the parade. On Thursday during rehearsals soldiers were warning people that they should not be close to the street as trucks are "dangerous". Well - why the same trucks are than without any special escort driving along main regional road???? Danger or not - this was a great opportunity to make some interesting shoots. See the parade and "road parade" photos at http://picasaweb.google.nl/gordie26/KievParade

Today I decided to take Kathy to Pereslav - a Cossack village about 100 km from Kiev. According to my guidebook this place has a nice 18th century church with a bell tower. Close to Pereslav is a nice open air Museum. The drive there is quintessential Ukraine. Flat fields. Poplar trees on horizon. Blue sky with low woolly clouds. Very picturesque. We were the only car on the road. In Pereslav we found the church and the belltower without any difficulty. However - Soviet times die hard and this beautiful baroque church is a church only from outside. During Soviet times the religion was forbidden. Shortly after revolution churches were destroyed but I guess it was hard work to level to the ground all churches across Soviet Union. Although bolsheviks did their best to destroy as much as possible, some churches remained but the Soviet government turned them into museums. In Pereslav case into the museum of "1943 Battle for Dniepro river". The museum was closed but next to the church entrance door there were same remnants of a Soviet tank. Kathy and myself read the bulletin board in the city and found announcement "buying natural hair". Hmmm...
As there was not much in the city to explore I started to look for a way to the open air museum. I asked a lady on the street and showed her my Ukrainian guide book. She never heard of a place. I usually do not ask men for instructions as they are usually not helpful. Either they are embarrassed a woman ask them something or they are embarrassed to tell a woman they do not know something. However it was around lunchtime. Not many people on the street. So I asked a guy for a help. And he was VERY helpful! Not only he knew about the place - he knew how to give directions and wanted to draw them for me!
Following helpful guy's directions I was soon on a road outside the city. After one curve I saw a pile of old Soviet military machinery - tanks, plane, military boat...All left there in the field to rust since WWII. I had to stop and make a photo. Among rusty tanks there was a couple on a date. "Meet you by the 4th tank" would sound bizarre to me but this military graveyard might be the best Pereslav can offer to lovebirds. See photos http://picasaweb.google.nl/gordie26/Pereslav
To ensure I am on the right road (Ukraine is short of any traffic signs) and encouraged by experience with a very helpful guy I stopped again and tried to ask a young man a question. I got a blank, stone look. My theory about helpful man being an exception confirmed, I drove on to babushka's selling veggies. Bought some watermelon and carrots and got perfect directions again. Thank God for for women on the road!
The open air museum is more like an ethno park badly needing some maintenance. There are nice buildings around. Some even have a board in Ukrainian about what the building is about - but nothing in English. But it's a nice park with lovely flowers and orchards. There was a museum of Ukrainian "rushnyk" a ceremonial towel representing feminine strength, vigour, and fertility - but in the museum there was no explanation about towel symbols, age of towels, how long it took to make one, stitching used...So frustrating.
Kathy and I were hungry and decided to look for some food. We asked the guy at the souvenir shop if somewhere close is a place with a good Ukrainian food. He told us "Smerekova hata" is a place to go. We found a place easily and it was a lovely place on a lake. The place was not too busy - but the waitress was avoiding us. Kathy and myself tried to make a contact and order some food but after 20 min I decided it's a time to go. If after 20 min I cannot order a food I might wait for an hour to get it and within an hour I am in Kiev. Nice place, but I hope next time I visit the place again - staff will be trained.